Central Intelligence Bulletin for 6/22/1963

22 June 1963
Central Intelligence Bulletin

Contents

1. USSR: Khrushchev fills void in top leadership. (Page 1)

[redacted]

3. Communist China - USSR: Peiping Maneuvers for Advantage Prior To the 5 July Confrontation. (Page 4)

[redacted]

9. British Guiana: A divided opposition improves Jagan's chances of weathering the national strike. (Page 3)
10. Ethiopia: Government reforms will probably be announced soon. (Page 4)
11. Notes: Venezuela; India-USSR; [redacted], Pakistan-Indonesia; Ireland; Italy. (Page 5)

Daily Brief

USSR: Khrushchev has moved to fill the void in the top leadership caused by the incapacitation of the party's second in command, Frol Kozlov.

Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev and Ukrainian party Chief Nikolai Podgorny—both members of the party presidium—were named to the central committee secretariat, the party's executive arm, on 21 June.

The promotions, made at the closing session of the party plenum, mark both men as leading candidates to succeed Khrushchev. They may also be intended to strengthen Khrushchev's support within the secretariat following what appeared to be disunity within the leadership earlier this spring. Brezhnev and Podgorny-56 and 60 respectively--are members of Khrushchev's long-favored Ukrainian clique and have been among his most loyal supporters in the past.

[redacted]

Communist China - USSR: Peiping has stepped up its attempts to exploit vulnerabilities in the Soviet position in the maneuvering for advantage prior to the 5 July confrontation.
Moscow has left itself particularly open to attack within the Communist world by its efforts to force faster economic integration on members of CEMA and by its response to the President's American University speech. Peiping has seized the opportunities opened by these Soviet moves.

The bitter Chinese commentary on the President's speech, broadcast on 21 June by NCNA, is centered on the "great conspiracy" of the US to destroy the Communist bloc by seducing Communists into revisionism and thus splitting Moscow away from Peiping. The words are directed at Washington but the venom is aimed at the Russian leaders, some of whom Peiping implies have been taken in.

The Chinese may later cite, as evidence of this, Moscow's decision to publish the President's speech while suppressing the Chinese central committee letter to the Soviet party. The Soviet ban on publication is now being evaded by the Chinese. Peiping's embassy in Moscow is circulating Russian-language texts of the Chinese letter to other diplomatic missions, to newsmen, and, if past practice is followed, to Soviet citizens as well. In an unprecedented action, East Germany has formally protested to the Chinese Embassy in East Berlin for its illegal dissemination of polemical material.

One of the new areas of attack on Soviet practices contained in the Chinese letter was a condemnation of Soviet attempts to impose certain economic policies on its satellites. This was clearly meant for sympathetic ears in Rumania especially and probably elsewhere in the bloc.

The Rumanians have already published a long summary of the Chinese letter in their party newspaper. Although the summary omits the most polemical parts of the document, the simple fact of publication—set against the Russian refusal to print any of the letter —reflects Rumania's dissatisfaction with bloc economic developments and indicates its growing willingness to act independently of Moscow.

[redacted]

British Guiana: Premier Jagan’s chances of weathering the strike may be enhanced by growing rivalry and distrust among political and labor opposition forces.

Jagan’s 18 June prorogation of the legislative council had the effect of erasing all pending legislative proposals, including the labor bill which had precipitated the general strike in the first place. This will make it easier for Jagan to convince those strikers who are Indian that the strike is political and designed only to unseat him.

The Trades Union Council (TUC) seems to have no clear-cut plan of action. Peoples' National Congress leader Forbes Burnham is apparently trying to exploit the TUC's present weakened condition in order to enhance his own political position. United Force leader Peter D'Aguilar, who had previously cooperated with Burnham in backing the TUC, is extremely bitter about Burnham's conduct.

Formal negotiations between Jagan and the TUC to end the strike, which once again seem to be in prospect, will continue to be extremely difficult. In these, Jagan is likely to be influenced by his advisers to resist any temptation to compromise. [redacted]

Ethiopia: Emperor Haile Selassie plans to announce in the near future important governmental changes designed to placate the increasing number of the regime's critics.

These will provide for collective ministerial responsibility under the prime minister's direct supervision, presumably in response to a petition presented to the Emperor in late March urging that the prime minister be given more authority. The petition was signed by nearly all the top military and government leaders who played prominent roles in suppressing the 1960 coup attempt.

If the changes are implemented promptly, they may satisfy--at least for the present—the growing demand for rapid progress and reduce the frustration of the younger, educated elements. Nevertheless, the anticipated changes fall short of those sought by the petitioners—such as the election of the prime minister by Parliament—and further pressures may be expected in due course. [redacted]

Notes

Venezuela: The Venezuelan Government has warned the US Embassy in Caracas that the terrorist Armed Forces of National Liberation (FALN) is planning to kidnap a high-level embassy official. The government is taking special measures to guard against further attacks on US citizens and installations, but its security services thus far have been unable to contain the FALN completely. [redacted]

India-USSR: Recent Soviet and Czech offers of a wide range of military equipment to India are a response to an Indian initiative in February and March when R. K. Nehru, secretary general of the Indian External Affairs Ministry, visited Moscow and Prague. An Indian mission, led by defense official Boothalingam, will open formal negotiations in Moscow on 1 July and will move on to Prague thereafter. The Russians are said to believe that the negotiations in Moscow need not take more than two weeks.

[redacted]

Pakistan-Indonesia: President Ayub reportedly plans to ask Sukarno to undertake personally the role of mediator in the Kashmir dispute. The Indonesian leader arrives in Pakistan on 24 June for a three-day state visit, arranged largely on Pakistan's initiative. Since neither Sukarno nor Nehru would be likely to look with particular favor on such an intervention, Ayub probably is mainly interested in gaining a propaganda advantage. [redacted]

Ireland: Prime Minister Lemass' Fianna Fall government may face a, no-confidence motion in the Dail (Parliament) when it votes on the budget on 25 June. Opposition leader James Dillon of the opposition Fine Gael Party, supported by Labor and several independents, is pressing to make an unpopular government proposal to introduce a 2.5-percent sales tax the issue of such a vote. To survive, the government—which lacks an over-all parliamentary majority—will need the support of at least two of the four independent members who generally back it. [redacted]

Italy: Giovanni Leone is due to be sworn in as premier today with an all - Christian Democratic cabinet. Technically, he must seek a vote of confidence within ten days, but this requirement has not always been strictly enforced. To win such a vote, Leone is trying to get the Nenni Socialists, the Socialist Democrats and the Republicans to abstain, but nothing will be certain as long as the Socialists remain in disarray. [redacted]